The presupposition of this piece is that america will be divided. The views of traditional americans and leftist americans are incompatible; and while traditionalists have bowed to the rule of law on abortion and other issues; leftists have launched economic embargoes against arizona for passing a law which supports the current federal immigration law, without violating or contradicting federal law in anyway. The left has a revolutionary zeal and sense of moral purity about their positions which empowers them to demonize, isolate and destroy those who oppose them. The division of america will come, because eventually conservatives will be forced to either submit to the political will of the left, or secede.
A leftist poster wrote a rather comical article today about what a nation fouded by "conservatives" would look like. Of course, he established his hypothetical nation as a theocracy, wherein all elected officials must be christian. So, let's try an intelligent approach for a change. What will become of the two states, if and when they are separated?
There are many issues which highlight the division between traditional and leftist americans. The obama presidency as brought many of them to the fore. obamacare was the flashpoint of obama's presidency, and immigration has also lit another fire of contention between traditionalists and leftists. But, underlying particular issues, like abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action and others, there is a philosophical difference that creates irreconcilable differences between leftists and traditionalists. That issue of greatest contention, from which all others difference flow, is their view of the constitution.
For most traditionalists, and certainly for myself, the constitution is a stable document and the foundation of our nation. For most leftists, the constitution is a fluid document, a deeply flawed framework written by "dead white men" which does not meet the needs of the 21st century. For stable constitutionalists, the amendment process setup by the constitution is THE means of remedy for issues which might not have been of concern in 1789, but which are crucial to americans today. For fluid constitutionalists, the constitution can be simply ignored to pursue their vision of "the common good."
Taking that in mind, the newly seceded conservative nation (which I imagine being called The Conservative States of America), will almost mirror the us constitutional framework. It will more strictly and pointedly observe the constitutional restriction of federal power -- that all powers not expressly ceded to the federal government will reside with the states. That will solve issues like abortion immediately. Rather than creating a "constitutional right" to abortion to socially engineer their desires, as leftists have done, each state will reserve the right to set laws either allowing, restricting or abolishing abortion.
There will be tensions within the new conservative states, of course. And a party system will likely develop, with the two major forces of the republican party represented. As has been the case since 1860, the republican party is divided roughly between economic conservatives (in today's world, think george bush sr, rudy guiliani and newt gingrich) and religious conservatives (think george bush jr, sarah palin and mike huckabee). These two factions will split into separate parties, and the democratic process which america has known since 1789 will continue.
Within the old united states, I believe the political framework will fracture into separate identity group allegiances. The greens, alernative sexuality advocates, christian blacks, christian hispanics, labor union activists, feminists and neo-socialists will form multiple parties. The old united states will become balkanized into separate communities and the demographics of the nation will shift dramatically, as these communities unite geographically.
There is a preconceived notion among the left that minorities will abandon the newly formed conservative states for the old united states. Between 15 and 30% of minority groups which currently receive protection from the democratic party (blacks and hispanics) protected minorities (blacks and hispanics) routinely vote republican, and those voters would be likely to join the conservative union. As for non-protected minorities (asians, indians, eastern europeans and other groups of lesser value as a block vote for the democrats), the split would be much more even. So the new conservative union would be multi-racial, but promoting a united philosophy regardless of race.
While the old united states might have larger percentages of blacks and hispanics, that would actually cause turmoil in the new union. blacks and hispanics vote en masse for the democratic party today because the democratic party panders to their identity group issues. Trading off their views on abortion, gay marriage and school choice, most blacks vote democratic because of government entitlement programs and because democrats excuse substandard socialization in urban black communites. With the conservatives gone, the tensions between identity groups would grow exponentially. With the conservatives gone, leftists will have no excuse for the high crime rates in the black community. And the fact that over 70% of blacks voted against the gay marriage law in california was ignored by leftists, who had the much more politically correct option of blaming white mormons.
The friction between these identity groups will cause first mass migrations, then open hostility between democratic fanctions. If you want a clear picture of the new united states of america, look at the 1968 and 1972 democratic conventions. Riots and social unrest would develop which would make the urban riots of the 1960s look tame. The strongest leftist party would seize control of the country, ala lenin/trotsky, and subjugate the others. A one party government would be formed, one which would embrace and expand the social engineering which passes for public education in america today.
The nation which was formerly the united states, would finally succumb to the ideological purges and terrors which always cap leftist revolutions, from france to the soviet union, china, cambodia and vietnam. In the america of today, leftists work to destroy and isolate conservatives one by one: sarah palin, glenn beck, miss california, etc. Freed of the constraints of a equally strong conservative/traditional party, the leftists would expand their agenda from harassment and economic isolation; political heretics will face arrest, political re-education, exile and execution.
The two nations, once divided, will present the choices facing american today. One is a recreation of american values, the other is a recreation of an orwellian nightmare.